See what a Recon analysis looks like
Every deal comes with an ARV, an 85% confidence interval, three strategy breakdowns, comps, and AI intel — plus an offer ladder on the deals we'd actually back. Below is a complete real example, including a case we wouldn't — no login required.
123 Oak Drive
Huntsville, AL 35801 — Huntsville AL
List Price
$245,000
Est. Market Value (As-Is)
$310,000
Beds / Baths / Sqft
3/2/1,680
Days on Market
42 days
Year Built
1962
Value-Add Verdict
Net spread after rehab, holding & selling costs.
-$15K
Not a Candidate
Needs +$25K and 10% of capital in — this lands at -5.5%.
Confidence 87%
Composite confidence score: 87/100
Likely Value Range(85% interval)
We expect the true value to fall between $260K and $415K. Green dot is our best single estimate; the shaded band is the likely range; red line is the asking price. (85% confidence interval)
The Value-Add Spread read is where the verdict above comes from. Gross spread discounts the raw ARV-to-list gap by ~30% for measured ARV optimism; net spread then subtracts full rehab, holding, and selling costs. “Capital in” below means list price + rehab ($245,000 + $25,200 = $270,200) — the cash actually at risk. This property's net spread doesn't clear our $25K / 10% candidacy floor, so Recon routes it to its rental/BRRRR economics instead of a flip. We'd rather tell you no than inflate a spread.
Value-Add Spread
Not a candidateOur value estimate assumes average condition — a fixer-upper is worth less than this number — so ARV − list price reads as the spread a renovation could capture (the value-add deal), not a claim the listing is mispriced. Net spread deducts estimated rehab, holding, and selling costs. (Technically: the model's ARV is condition-blind.)
List $245K → ARV $310K (raw gap $65K)
Gross Spread
$46K
18.6% of list
after conservatism haircut
Net Spread
-$15K
-5.5% on capital in (list + rehab)
$/sqft vs Zip Median
Rehab Est.
$25K
+$14K hold · $22K sell
ARV Band
$260K – $415K
calibrated on realized flips
ARV Estimate
$310K
basis: standard model estimate
Downside Net
-$45K
net spread at the band's lower ARV
Candidacy checks
- Net spread clears the floor — min ~$25K
- Return on capital clears the floor — min ~10%
- No permanent discount — flood, highway, lot, land
- Spread explained by condition — not a turnkey outlier
Why not a candidate: The net spread is below the candidacy minimum (typically $25K)
Spreads shown are the conservative read — we already discount for the model's known optimism.
The Flip strategy card (when shown) is computed on a different basis — a condition-uplift ARV and itemized rehab — so its net profit can differ from the net spread here. When the two disagree, this card is the conservative read.
Three investment strategies analyzed. Green highlight = recommended approach.
Flip
Rental (LTR)
BRRRR
RecommendedOffer Strategy
Shown for illustration. On a live deal our analysis rejects, Recon hides this ladder instead of naming a price — you'd see an explanation here, not numbers.
Aggressive
$165K
Target
$179K
Walk-Away
$195K
Target is 27.0% below asking
Because this property doesn't clear our value-add bar (see verdict above), the ladder is capped at the classic 70%-rule ceiling: $194,500 — 70% of our $310,000 ARV minus $22,500 in full rehab. Walk-Away sits exactly at that ceiling; Target and Aggressive negotiate down from there. 42 days on market and no recent price reductions suggest the seller is testing the market — lead with Aggressive and justify with the 1960s HVAC and the comp at 204 Maple ($302K, 1,640 sqft). The 45.3% gap between Target and our $260,000 lower bound isn't free equity: it combines our own MAO discipline (pricing well under list because this property doesn't clear our value-add bar) and the same rehab-driven gap between list and ARV that the Value-Add verdict above already prices in as rehab, holding, and selling costs.
AI Intelligence
Photos show original kitchen and bathrooms, refinishable hardwoods under carpet, and a structurally sound exterior. A cosmetic-plus-systems rehab (kitchen, two baths, HVAC, paint, flooring) at ~$18K opens a BRRRR refinance at our $310,000 ARV with 75% LTV.
Red Flags
- — 1960s HVAC may need replacement ($4–6K)
- — Original windows — consider $3K upgrade for rental appeal
- — Roof age unknown; inspection strongly recommended
Negotiation Signals
Flip Rehab
$22,500
Rental Rehab
$14,200
BRRRR Rehab
$18,000
Top Comparables
| Address | Distance | Sold | Sqft | $/Sqft | DOM | Sold Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 117 Oak Dr | 0.1 mi | $314,500 | 1,720 | $183 | 28 | 2 mo ago |
| 204 Maple St | 0.3 mi | $302,000 | 1,640 | $184 | 33 | 5 mo ago |
| 88 Birch Ln | 0.4 mi | $319,900 | 1,700 | $188 | 19 | 1 mo ago |
Weighted median comp price: $312,100. Recon adjusts for sqft, condition, lot, and recency.
Why This Isn't a Value-Add Candidate
List is priced 6.1% below our model's 85% confidence lower bound of $260,000 — a $155K-wide interval (about 50% of the estimate) around a $310,000 central estimate. It's real, but wide: this property routes to our Budget price segment, a documented weak spot where the model widens its range rather than pretend to precision it doesn't have (see Model Details below). Our pricing model is also condition-blind: on a home that needs work, its estimate reads as an After-Repair Value, not a same-condition comp price — so “below the model” isn't proof of a mispriced listing. Once you apply the ARV-optimism haircut and this property's actual rehab, holding, and selling costs, the net spread comes out to -$15K — under our $25K candidacy floor. See the Value-Add Spread verdict above for the full math.
Signal breakdown
- Priced 6.1% below our model's lower bound — reads as renovation spread (condition-blind pricing), not proof of mispricing
- Below-median PPSF: $146 vs $184 submarket median
- 3/2 ratio matches neighborhood norm (highest resale velocity)
- 2-car attached garage (+$8K comp adjustment)
- 42 days on market — seller motivation above market median
Risks
- 1960s HVAC may need replacement ($4–6K)
- Original windows — consider $3K upgrade for rental appeal
- Roof age unknown; inspection strongly recommended
Risk & Quality
Market Regime
This home is priced in the bottom ~35% of its market, so it's served by a specialist model tuned for cheap homes — where prediction errors are historically larger. This is a documented weaker segment for the model, so we weight the conservative floor more heavily and widen the range here rather than take the raw estimate at face value.
Expert pool
5-model specialist pool
Typical error on similar homes
28.7%
Advanced: model internals
5-expert pool: ExtraTrees, CatBoost-Quantile (P25/P45/P75), CatBoost-Uncertainty, DRF, and XGBoostLSS. Trained on an identity transform to avoid log-scale distortion at low price points.
Lead expert model: catboost · weight 34%
Regime is assigned by a Gaussian Mixture Model on predicted price-per-square-foot. Per-regime conformal calibration means the confidence interval already accounts for this property's segment.