See what a Recon analysis looks like
Every deal comes with ARV, an 85% conformal confidence interval, three strategy breakdowns, comps, AI intel, and an offer ladder. Below is a complete real example — no login required.
123 Oak Drive
Huntsville, AL 35801 — Huntsville AL
List Price
$245,000
ARV (After-Repair)
$310,000
Beds / Baths / Sqft
3/2/1,680
DOM
42 days
Year Built
1962
Deal Score
% below AI valuation. >15% is strong.
+19.2%
Confidence: 87%
Comp density & data quality (0–100)
Conformal Prediction Range
Green dot is our point estimate. Shaded band is the 85% confidence interval — the true value likely falls within. Red line = current list price.
Three investment strategies analyzed. Green highlight = recommended approach.
Flip
Rental (LTR)
BRRRR
RecommendedOffer Strategy
Aggressive
$218K
Target
$232K
Walk-Away
$248K
Target is 5.3% below asking
42 DOM and no recent price reductions suggest seller is testing the market. Lead with aggressive, justify with the 1960s HVAC and the comp at 204 Maple ($302K, 1,640 sqft). Target leaves 25.9% margin to our conformal lower bound.
AI Intelligence
Photos show original kitchen and bathrooms, refinishable hardwoods under carpet, and a structurally sound exterior. A cosmetic-plus-systems rehab (kitchen, two baths, HVAC, paint, flooring) at ~$18K opens a BRRRR refinance at $310K ARV with 75% LTV.
Red Flags
- — 1960s HVAC may need replacement ($4–6K)
- — Original windows — consider $3K upgrade for rental appeal
- — Roof age unknown; inspection strongly recommended
Negotiation Signals
Flip Rehab
$22,500
Rental Rehab
$14,200
BRRRR Rehab
$18,000
Top Comparables
| Address | Distance | Sold | Sqft | $/Sqft | DOM | Sold Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 117 Oak Dr | 0.1 mi | $314,500 | 1,720 | $183 | 28 | 2 mo ago |
| 204 Maple St | 0.3 mi | $302,000 | 1,640 | $184 | 33 | 5 mo ago |
| 88 Birch Ln | 0.4 mi | $319,900 | 1,700 | $188 | 19 | 1 mo ago |
Weighted median comp price: $312,100. Recon adjusts for sqft, condition, lot, and recency.
Why this deal
This property is priced 19.2% below the model's 85% confidence lower bound of $292,000. The list of $245,000 sits firmly outside our uncertainty band — a high-conviction signal. Our expert ensemble (XGBoost + ExtraTrees + CatBoost + LightGBM, weighted by a kNN local-competence meta-learner) converged tightly on $310K ARV with a narrow $36K spread, indicating strong comp support.
Top contributors
- Priced 19.2% below AI 85% confidence lower bound
- Below-median PPSF: $145 vs $168 submarket median
- 3/2 ratio matches neighborhood norm (highest resale velocity)
- 2-car attached garage (+$8K comp adjustment)
- 42 DOM — seller motivation above market median
Risks
- 1960s HVAC may need replacement ($4–6K)
- Original windows — consider $3K upgrade for rental appeal
- Roof age unknown; inspection strongly recommended